‚Äč Bond Market Update

Bond Market Update

Bond Market Update

Market Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

What's going on and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds are continuing to hover near the upper end of their recent range as the first trading day of Q3 gets underway. New coronavirus cases in the US spiked more than 47,000 yesterday, which is a new one-day high, and White House health advisor Dr. Fauci warned that daily cases could exceed 100,000 at the current pace. Meanwhile, this morning's ADP private employment numbers showed job gains of 2.369 million last month although the market was expecting to see 3 million new jobs. The market's attention will now turn to the closely-watched official non-farm payrolls report which is scheduled for release tomorrow. The Fed is scheduled to purchase up to $4.665 billion of mortgage bonds today.

What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can remain above their 10-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if mortgage bonds fall below that level.

Economic Calendar

Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
Date Report Period Prior Est. Actual
Mon 29 Jun Pending Home Sales May -21.8% 18.9% 44.3%
Tue 30 Jun Chicago PMI Jun 32.3 45.0 36.6
Tue 30 Jun Consumer Confidence Jun 86.6 91.7 98.1
Wed 1 Jul ADP National Employment Jun -2.760M 3.000M 2.369M
Wed 1 Jul Construction Spending May -2.9% 1.0% -2.1%
Wed 1 Jul ISM Mfg PMI Jun 43.1 49.4 52.6 
Thu 2 Jul Non-farm Payrolls Jun 2.509M 3.000M  
Thu 2 Jul Unemployment Rate Jun 13.3% 12.3%  
Thu 2 Jul Average Earnings Jun -1.0% -0.7%  
Thu 2 Jul Initial Jobless Claims Week of Jun 22 1.480M 1.355M  
Thu 2 Jul Factory Orders May -13.0% 8.6%