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Bond Market Update

Market Update

Friday, February 15, 2019

What's going on and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds opened lower this morning, and they are hovering near their 30-day moving average with no clear direction. Financial markets remain concerned about global economic growth following yesterday's shockingly weak US retail sales report along with a disappointing inflation report from China. Even so, there has been encouraging news regarding US-China trade discussions which have concluded. The US team and China President Xi said this week’s round of meetings were productive, and that talks would continue in Washington next week. As for the federal government budget negotiations, President Trump is expected to sign a spending bill that avoids another government shutdown, but he is also expected to declare a national emergency on the US-Mexico border.

What should you do about it?
Watch and see if mortgage bonds can remain above their 30-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate quickly if mortgage bonds fall below that level.

Economic Calendar

Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:

Date Report Period Prior Est. Actual
Tue 12 Feb JOLTS Job Openings Dec 6.888M - 7.335M
Wed 13 Feb Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Wed 13 Feb CPI Jan -0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Thu 14 Feb Initial Jobless Claims Week of Feb 4 234k 225k 239k
Thu 14 Feb PPI final demand Jan -0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Thu 14 Feb Retail Sales Dec 0.2% 0.2% -1.2%
Thu 14 Feb Business Inventories Nov 0.6% 0.2% -0.1%
Fri 15 Feb NY Fed Mfg Index Feb 3.90 7.00 8.80
Fri 15 Feb Industrial Production Jan 0.3% 0.1% -0.6%
Fri 15 Feb U of Mich Consumer Sent. Feb 91.2 94.0 95.5

Julee Felsman

Julee Felsman
NMLS: 120831
Guaranteed Rate Inc | Workshop Mortgage Team
Corporate NMLS: 2611
(503) 799-3711
329 NE Couch St, Rm 328
Portland, Oregon 97232


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